Are Early Voting Numbers Bad News for John Bel? [VIDEO]
Political analyst Dr. Jeff Sadow talks with 101.7 / 710 KEEL's Robert J Wright and Erin McCarty about the results from the state's early voting period and what those numbers might mean for candidates in the governor's race.
Sadow tells KEEL listeners that if early voting numbers are extrapolated and based on results from previous elections, a runoff in Louisiana's governor's race could be in the offing.
From a Sadow column at thehayride.com:
"To determine whether any party’s candidates have an advantage, data from the previous five years of contests with a statewide elective office on them can be used. This yields ten data points.
Democrats have averaged 39.26 percent total turnout while Republicans have averaged 43.59 percent. In terms of early voting over this span, those means respectively are 8.47 and 10.14. Thus, the ratio for Democrats, is 4.65; for Republicans, it’s 4.35. This shows in recent history that of those who vote Democrats in comparison to Republicans disproportionately don’t vote early, with early votes making up 21.5 percent of their total while for the GOP its early voters comprise 23 percent of that total."
Sadow adds that on the GOP side, the race between candidates Ralph Abraham and Eddie Rispone may be too close to call, but reiterates that he sees a runoff between the leading Republican and incumbent Edward in November.