Fall weather is not quite here yet, but North Louisiana is enjoying a little crisper mornings and clear skies, yet conditions are quietly tilting toward trouble.

State Agriculture and Forestry Commissioner Mike Strain told KEEL News on Wednesday that the next few weeks look bone dry across the region, with abnormally dry pockets already showing up around Monroe and the northeast parishes.

That pattern, paired with human-caused fires, is what local leaders watch when deciding whether to issue parish burn bans. 

The Dry Pattern We’re Seeing in North Louisiana 

Tropical systems have stayed offshore, so the Gulf has not fed us much moisture. Forecast guidance points to very limited rain chances over the next seven days. As Strain put it, “The next seven days is expected to be absolutely bone dry,” noting that the usual Texas Panhandle storm track is missing Louisiana and keeping places like Shreveport, Bossier City, and Monroe vulnerable. 

What Triggers a Burn Ban 

Parish burn bans usually come once drought classifications tick up to moderate levels. Officials try to delay blanket bans because debris piles then stack up and eventually must be burned.

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“If we get into moderate drought, we will institute the burn bans, and it’s done parish by parish because every parish is different,” Strain said. Expect parish-by-parish restrictions if dryness intensifies into D1 across more parishes. 

Fire Activity in the Past Week 

Crews have knocked down dozens of small fires lately. Most were started by people cleaning up their yards during nice weather and lighting brush piles that got away. “None of these fires have been acts of nature. Lightning hasn’t caused any of this,” Strain said, stressing that it only takes a light breeze for flames to run across a field faster than you can chase them. 

If You Must Burn, Do It Safely 

Stay with the fire the entire time. Keep a charged garden hose at arm’s length and a rake to pull material apart and smother hotspots. Clear a safe ring around your pile. Avoid windy afternoons. Never assume a small flame will stay small. 

What It Means for Farms and Ponds 

Harvest conditions are actually favorable for corn, soybeans, and cotton because dry weather speeds field work. Crawfish producers look steady for now thanks to adequate water and increased acreage. Prolonged dryness into late January could change that outlook, so producers will keep a close eye on canal and well levels. 

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