Louisiana Recession Coming? Economic Analyst On Trump Administration Tariffs

As many predicted, new data from the US Labor Department and the Consumer Price Index shows inflation took a sharp incline over the last few weeks. Senior Counselor for Trade and Manufacturing for President Trump, Peter Navarro, revealed this week that the United States has increased import taxes by $106.1 billion as of July 1st, 2025. Economic experts are linking the two of these data points together, and say it's painting a worrisome picture for the US, and especially Louisiana.

Tariff Inflations Pushing Louisiana Into Recession Territory

In Louisiana, the pinch seems to be particularly hard. An economic analyst recently sat down with KLAF-TV in Lafayette to detail the state's concerns. Thomas Fellow, author and workforce/economic expert, told KLAF that the state of Louisiana is being pushed into recession territory. Pointing out a few specific data markers:

"Produce from Mexico, there's obviously … tariffs on Mexican goods now, which is going to affect grocery prices as well...There's tariffs with aluminum and steel, which are obviously affecting the construction industries. So really, there's a double whammy."

Fellow added that Louisiana's GDP (Gross Domestic Product) has taken a massive hit since the tariffs started. The state's shrinking GDP is now the worst among all Southeastern states. Many of Louisiana's top industries are being attacked hard by tariff increases, including that state's oil and gas industry.

Tariff Impacts On Louisiana's Oil and Gas Industry

As Fellow points out, many of the state's oil field services, drilling, and energy production companies rely on parts and materials that have to be imported regularly. Some of the imported goods are needed on a daily basis. As those oil and gas companies get taxed higher on the imports, their costs are increasing. Which is leading to a higher cost for the consumer.

Inflation From Tariff Taxes Just Starting

Its the same scenario playing out from coast to coast in America right now. Tariff taxes have pushed the inflation rate up 2.7% in June, according to the US Labor Department. Much like Fellows, Chief Economist at AllianceBernstein Eric Winograd says these sharp inflation increases are directly tied to tariff tax increases on the American people. He told the Chicago Sun Times:

“You are starting to see scattered bits of the tariff inflation regime filter in...Were it not for the tariff uncertainty, the Fed would already be cutting rates...The question is whether there is more to come, and the Fed clearly thinks there is”

Big Inflation Markers For The First Time In Years

The Government also says that the inflation on "durable goods", long lasting products like cars, appliances, furniture, and consumer electronics, rose last month for the first time in three years. Causing even more concern for economists.

Retailers, Including Walmart, Raising Prices

While some point to many businesses keeping prices down over the last couple of months, the Associated Press points out that many large retailers spend the spring building up inventory before the tariff taxes took hold. But those stockpiles have dwindled, and the retailers are now having to pass the tax hike on to the consumer.

The largest retailer in American, Walmart, isn't immune. As their early spring stockpile ran out, they raised prices on customers in June. Mitsubishi and Nike have also announced price hikes to US consumers to pass on the tariff taxes. Food prices have taken a big hit over the last month as well.

Tariff Cost On Groceries Hurt

According to the US Government's latest data, grocery prices are up 2.4% from last year. With much of the concern being placed on the volatile tariffs on Mexico, where the climate allows for produce to thrive. This includes a 17% tariff tax on tomatoes, which is being passed on to the consumer.

The Warnings About Tariffs Were There

Experts have warned since the inception of the Trump Administration's tariff tax plan that these increases would be passed to the American consumer. Their warnings said that prices would rise, and the economy would slow. As these numbers start to emerge, it looks like their warnings were correct. Now its just a matter of how long we have to weather the tariff tax storm.