Tropics Heating Up – October ‘Surprise’ For the Gulf?

(KMDL-FM) It's the question that everyone in the world of meteorology is wondering, but not really wanting to ask out loud. It's almost as if no one wants to "speak it into existence," but since we are writing, maybe we can get away with a quick query about the current tropical weather scenario affecting the Atlantic Basin and perhaps, ultimately, the Gulf Coast.

Most of you have known since early April that hurricane forecasters had pegged the 2025 Hurricane Season as "active" and "above normal". Well, so far it's been anything but that. However, as we mentioned, we don't want to "kick the ant hill" and make Mother Nature mad, so she starts spinning up more tropical systems for us to be concerned with.

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What Is The Forecast Track for Tropical Storm Gabrielle?

As far as activity in the tropics is concerned, it has been confirmed that there are two tropical entities that have garnered the attention of the National Hurricane Center. One of those entities is Tropical Storm Gabrielle. Here is the track forecast for Gabrielle courtesy of the National Hurricane Center.

That's what they call a "fish storm". In other words, the forecast track suggests Gabrielle and all of her energy will be dispersed over the open waters of the Atlantic. Granted, no track forecast is entirely accurate, but it does look as though the forecast models have a good handle on Gabrielle.

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The other tropical entity that the NHC is watching is a tropical wave. It just rolled off the coast of Africa earlier this week. As of now, forecasters are giving this system a 20% chance of strengthening over the weekend into early next week.

However, suppose you examine some of the long-range tropical models. In that case, several of those model runs suggest that a system may form and intensify near the forecast position of the tropical wave next week. Remember that this is a model projection and not an official forecast, and we're looking at model projections.

Model Guidance Suggests Tropical Activity in the Gulf in Early October

There have been several model runs that suggest tropical activity in the Gulf near the beginning of October. First things first, that's a long time from now, so any forecast made that far down the road will change. The model guidance is not specific on what it shows developing in the Gulf, but more than one tropical forecast model shows a lot of moisture accumulating around what appears to be a low-pressure system just south of Louisiana's coastline.

If a system develops, and that is still a very big "if," it wouldn't be the first time the Louisiana coastline has been affected by a tropical system in the early days of October. Many of you might remember Hurricane Lili, which made landfall in Vermilion Parish near Intracoastal City on October 3rd, 2002. It was the second costliest hurricane of the 2002 season.

And we remind you of that to remind you of this: hurricane season lasts through the end of November, and there is still plenty of hurricane season left for us to be concerned with. Hopefully, you've made your plan and you'll never have to use it.  Do check back for updates on the tropics over the next few days.