Coastal Texas Tropical Worries Increasing Saturday

Forecasters with the National Hurricane Center have identified an area of disturbed weather in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. The Hurricane Center's update posted just before one this morning suggested that this system was likely to increase in size and strength and could become a tropical depression or a tropical storm within a matter of days.

The storm's poorly defined circulation was several hundred miles south of the southern tip of Texas. However there could be concerns along the Lower Texas Coast in the coming days. Just for clarity, forecasters do not think South Texas will suffer major impacts from this system or whatever this system revolves into next week. 

What Are The Tropical Concers For Texas This Weekend?

Should the system in the southwestern Gulf grow stronger as it is forecast to do there could be impacts of gusty winds, an increase in shower and thundershower activity, and probably the most significant, an increase in wave action along the beaches.

The area is already getting a pretty good soaking from showers and thunderstorms rolling in off of the Gulf of Mexico. That threat of rain will linger along the coast, especially on Sunday and Monday. Here's the current Brownsville radar scan. 

And a live shot from the Courtyard by Marriot on South Padre Island.

You can see the Hurricane Center's projected probability and track model graphic below.

The good news for Texas is that this system will be moving away from the state before it gets a chance to spin up into something bigger. The bad news is that forecasters do expect a stronger cyclone in the next few days. The worst news is the strengthening storm appears to be taking aim on Florida's west coast.

You can see some of the tropical forecast models here. Please, remember they are model solutions and not official forecasts. As of now, the model guidance does suggest that once again the Tampa Bay and Big Bend areas of Florida should be ready for another tropical system.