Tropical System Forecast to Strengthen – Could Be An Issue for the Gulf

(KMDL-FM) The fact that we are discussing a developing tropical system in the Atlantic Basin at this time of the year is not unusual. What is unusual is that we are only discussing one potential tropical trouble spot at this time of year.

The first two weeks, actually all of September and a few weeks in August and a few weeks in October, are considered to be Louisiana's "Prime Time" for tropical weather. The peak of the Atlantic Hurricane Season is September 10th, and that means the peak of the season will occur on Wednesday of next week.

READ MORE:  Daylight Saving Time in Louisiana - When Does It End This Year?

READ MORE: Are These Louisiana's Luckiest Lottery Numbers?

Forecasters arrived at that date after comparing years and years of hurricane and tropical records, and it would stand to reason. The water temperature in the Gulf is approaching record levels as far as temperatures are concerned, and the weather patterns of the Northern Hemisphere are beginning to change as we transition from the summer months into the fall and winter months.

What Is The Current Tropical Weather Concern in the Atlantic Basin?

Forecasters with the National Hurricane Center have been following an aggressive tropical wave since early this week when it was situated just off the west coast of Africa. The system has moved steadily westward at a lower latitude than previous storms Erin and Fernand traversed the Atlantic.

This trek along the lower latitudes is certainly a reason why those who have interests in the Gulf States should keep an eye on this system over the next week to ten days. Currently, the National Hurricane Center is giving this system a 90% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone by this time next week.

What Will The Next Tropical Storm Be Named?

Should the system reach the tropical storm threshold, it would earn the name Gabrielle. And based on some of the model guidance and the way that guidance has been showing a westward drift in the track of the system, Gabrielle might not be a name folks along the Gulf Coast will want to be hearing.

Get our free mobile app

The Global Forecast System or GFS Model is a model that is highly respected by forecasters with the National Weather Service. It's often one of the "spaghetti models" TV weather guessers will show when they offer their forecast on a tropical system's track.

What is the Potential Track of the Tropical System in the Atlantic?

The GFS has, over the past few model runs, brought the system that we can only assume would be Gabrielle into the Gulf on or about September 18th. The current GFS guidance suggests the system would be more of a Florida storm than it would be a weather maker for Louisiana and Texas, but the continual slide to the west in the model forecasts could start to grow concerns west of New Orleans, Lafayette, and Lake Charles.

This snapshot from the 0000Z Run of the GFS for 09/05/2025 shows where the model has the system located at 312 hours, or a little over a week and a half from today. Here is the disclaimer: this is a model projection and not an official forecast.  Use only official forecast information to formulate your plans for yourself and your family.

The model projections are just a "heads up" that, based on a lot of math, there could be some serious weather headed your way. You and your family have no reason to take any action at this time. Other than checking your hurricane kit to make sure your box has fresh supplies, a can opener, and some other important items, just in case you need them.