2026 Independence Bowl Projections After Week Four

Shreveport's college bowl game, the Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl, is locked in for their 2026 game. This year's game is scheduled for Tuesday, December 22nd at 7:30pm. As always, the game will be played inside Independence Stadium in Shreveport.

This year is the 50th Anniversary of the Independence Bowl, and the game organizers have spent the offseason preparing for the massive celebration. Even with all of the epic anniversary celebrations, the big thing people are going to be looking forward to is the matchup. Because the game itself does actually matter.

Bowl officials are currently watching dozens of teams play, preparing for who will get the official invites. This year is going to be an interesting mix of conferences who could secure an invite to the game. It used to be really easy to look at a simple set of agreements an know which conference was going to be sending teams to Shreveport for the bowl game, but due to conference realignment and rotating agreements...that's not as easy as it once was. So instead of trying to figure out what college football writers across the country think is going on, we just went to the bowl itself.

Right now, the staff of the Independence Bowl is working on a plan that sees a Big 12 program facing a Pac 12 "legacy" school...meaning programs that are no longer in the Pac 12 remain eligible for the Shreveport trip. So Arizona, Arizona State, California, Colorado, Oregon, Oregon State, Stanford, UCLA, USC, Utah, Washington, and Washington State will all be eligible for the Independence Bowl this year, if they get to the 6 win minimum for bowl eligibility.

National Independence Bowl Projections

National sports media outlets like to keep a running record of bowl projections all season. Actually, they're usually so excited to do it, they make predictions for games like the Independence Bowl before the season even starts. Often they're way off at this point in the season, but that's what makes it fun. We're literally just guessing right now. But we can at least make educated guesses.

These analysts monitor team records, bowl tie-ins, and conference standings to project the final bowl destinations. Even if they lose track of important elements sometimes. In the past, some of the national voices have made wild predictions that violate all of the conference and bowl agreements...which we can just ignore and have some fun.

Right now, it appears some of these analysts are actively factoring the Pac 12 "legacy" pool into their Shreveport projections, so they're paying attention. That legacy group remains legally tied to the Independence Bowl through prior contract agreements...before the conference realignment storm.

Here's what the nation is looking at right now:

Publication: ESPN
Writer: Kyle Bonagura
Teams: Oregon State vs. West Virginia

Publication: ESPN
Writer: Mark Schlabach
Teams: Washington vs. Cincinnati

Publication: Yahoo Sports
Writer: Nick Bromberg
Teams: UCF vs. UCLA 

Publication: RotoWire
Writer: Thomas Leary
Teams: Baylor vs UCF

Publication: CBS Sports
Writer: Staff
Teams: Oklahoma State vs Washington State

Local Independence Bowl Predictions

Washington State surfaces in projections right now, but with their 1-3 record it might be hard for them to become bowl eligible. They would have to win 5 of their remaining 8 games to reach the 6 wins required for bowl eligibility.

Texas Tech would be a tremendous team for the Independence Bowl, thanks to their national recognition and regional drawing ability. But with a 4-0 record right now, Texas Tech might be looking at a College Football Playoff path. That would take them out of consideration for the Independence Bowl.

The Baylor Bears are currently at 3-1 on the season, and offer the same qualities that Texas Tech does...national brand and regional draw for Shreveport...but might have an easier path to Shreveport. Baylor needs three more wins to be bowl eligible, and it looks like they can do that, but they have a stretch of ranked teams on the road this year that might keep them out of the playoffs. Making them a possible pick for Shreveport.

Right now, a couple Big 12 teams to watch are TCU and Colorado. Both are 2-2, so they need to find 4 more wins. TCU comes with the regional draw for Shreveport, while Colorado comes with Deion Sanders. Having Coach Prime in Shreveport could be a big draw...but so would TCU. Before either can be considered, they have to get to 6 wins. But there's another issue to consider with Colorado...

Colorado is both a current Big 12 team AND a Pac 12 "Legacy" team...so they might be too problematic to create a matchup around. Instead, we're going to hope TCU finds those 4 wins, and punches a ticket to Shreveport.

From the Pac 12 "Legacy", UCLA is a very interesting option. They're a national brand, even if its not for their football program. But they have the logo and name...and probably a good team this year. They're 4-0 right now, but their new home is in the Big Ten...which means they have big boy games with Michigan, Wisconsin, USC, and Oregon on the schedule still. There are winnable games coming up against Nevada and Michigan State, so getting to 6 wins is possible. Keep an eye on UCLA.

Stanford is somehow in the ACC right now...yes, the ATLANTIC Coast Conference. They're 2-2 at this point, so they're looking for an additional 4 wins to be bowl eligible. Those wins can easily be found on their remaining schedule, but would they be a good draw for Shreveport? Probably not in-person...but they could do some numbers on TV for sure. Especially with the right matchup.

So for our first prediction of the year, we're going to go with them.

For this year's first Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl, we are projecting TCU vs. Stanford.

Is it the sexiest matchup out of the options? No...but is it realistic? At this point, yes.