The peak of the 2020 Hurricane Season is still about two weeks away. According to history, that peak is September 10th but for storm-weary residents of Louisiana, we feel as if we have been dragged over the mountaintop already, twice. But despite our feelings, Mother Nature is moving forward with her plans for an even more active tropical season.

This morning there are two immediate areas of concern and two areas that are not as close to tropical cyclone status. Let's get to the ones that are closest to the United States. Unfortunately, they also happen to be the two systems that are most likely to develop.

But there is good news.

One of the systems is actually pushing away from the United States mainland. That's a low-pressure system that has slipped off the Florida coast and into the Atlantic. Forecasters give that system a 70% chance of becoming at least a tropical depression. The good news on this system is it appears to be headed out to sea.

The second system that is poised for development is located in the southern Caribbean Sea. This system has been given an 80% probability of development over the next five days and is currently on a track that could see it grazing Nicaragua and Honduras while moving in the general direction of Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico.

Many tropical track models do keep this system in the Caribbean and out of the Gulf of Mexico. Most of the model guidance suggests the system will continue to move westward and make landfall most likely in Belize.

The two other areas of tropical concern are tropical waves in the far Atlantic Ocean. One of the waves is given a 10% probability of becoming a tropical cyclone. The other, currently still centered on the African Continent, has been given a 30% probability of further development.

As of now, tropical forecast models do not indicate any tropical activity for the Gulf of Mexico for the next five days.


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