Overnight Update – Tropical System in Gulf Poised to Strengthen
(KMDL-FM) The National Hurricane Center has just published its latest update on the tropics, and there is an area of concern that residents of Coastal Louisiana should be paying attention to.
The system has been slowly getting better organized over the past few days, and it appears to be poised to become a tropical depression, or it could earn the name Isaias if it strengthens into a tropical storm.
Forecasters with the National Hurricane Center have upped the odds of the system becoming a tropical cyclone. Yesterday at this time, the suggestion was a 40% probability of strengthening; this morning that probability is now 80% over the next two days and 80% over the next week.
How Likely Is the Tropical System in the Gulf to Strengthen Into a Hurricane?
The verbiage being used by the Hurricane Center when asked about strengthening is this:
Although environmental conditions appear only marginally conducive for development, a tropical depression is likely to form within the next couple of days.
The current thinking, based on available information, is that the system will struggle to grow rapidly stronger as it drifts to the east-northeast of its current position. This motion is expected through midweek. At which time a more northerly track is forecast.
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The Hurricane Center is quick to say it is too early to determine specific impacts for Louisiana or along the Northern Gulf Coast, but residents in those areas should monitor the situation closely.
Forecast Models Suggest a Landfall Along the Northern Gulf Coast This Weekend
Tropical forecast models seem to suggest a track that brushes extreme southeastern Louisiana but might be more troubling for persons along the Mississippi and Alabama Gulf Coast as we move closer to the weekend. But that doesn't mean South Louisiana will avoid any impacts at all.
As of now, the current weekend rain projections show higher rainfall totals generally along and south of I-10 from Lafayette to New Orleans. As you can see on the graphic from the Lake Charles Forecast Office of the National Weather Service, rainfall amounts of several inches could be possible from Friday through Sunday.
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As is the case with most tropical systems in the Gulf, we will have to wait and watch and be prepared to take action should it be needed.
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